Why I (Still) Think Silverlight Should Fail
14.05.08 @ 9:51 am
A while back, I wrote a small article about why I felt Silverlight should fail. The writeup generated a lot of good conversation and a bit of ire from Silverlight supporters (such as this example) so I thought it would be beneficial to write a followup. Let me try to make this clear, I am not a Flash fanboy. While I use Flash to pay the bills, I have written about my concerns with Flash. It is my belief that use of Flash on the web (and other RIA technologies) will continue to dwindle as open-source solutions that provide similar solutions take their place. Even if Silverlight usurps Flash (something I greatly doubt), there may not be much of a kingdom to reign upon once they do. I think Adobe sees this shift, I am unsure if Microsoft does.
Silverlight Already Reeks of Microsoft
My wife and I have a subscription to MLB.com which uses Silverlight to stream their audio. Semi-unsurprisingly, the application did not work on either of our Macs - something that cannot automatically be attributed to the plugin directly, but it was not a good start for my opinion. However, what really got me was when I tried to uninstall it. I looked for an uninstaller, but nay, could not find one. I then found a Silverlight discussion board thread on the subject where the person was told they had to run commands through the terminal to get rid of the plugin. This, my friends, is the quintessential quandary of many Microsoft products - the technology is good but there is no polish or concern for outside cases. I do not run Windows and therefore do not have their uninstaller method, so I am stuck running commands through the terminal. Can you see why I, and many others, are skeptical about true cross platform support? If we cannot even get a simple uninstaller, how can we rely on anything of significance? It is not only cross-browser/cross-platform support that is necessary for success of a browser plugin, you also need cross-browser/cross-platform trust - something that still seems to be in short supply.
Drinking From a Shallow Waterhole
Simply put, technologies like Flash and Silverlight are getting squeezed. At this moment, games, video and audio are the three things on the web that fall securely in the realm of Flash/Silverlight applications, but how much longer will that be the case? Javascript has slowly eaten away at the need for Flash (and subsequently Silverlight) over the years. Ironically, as a Flash designer/developer, I am having a harder time suggesting Flash for projects which would definitely require Flash a few years ago. When you see John Resig’s Processing.js and current experiments with HTML 5’s video element, the writing on the wall should be evident. Sure, these experiments are most likely not ready for commercial use, but these projects have a history of advancing exponentially. The need for RIA apps on the web will always be there, but the demand is going to shrink considerably. I just do not see how two not-too-distinguishable RIA technologies will be able to thrive in such an environment - especially when one is just getting started.
By failing, am I suggesting that Silverlight will be blown off the face of the earth by Flash? Of course not. However, I do not see Silverlight taking over Flash’s market - a market which I strongly feel will continue to shrink in the following five years. Since when is Microsoft not interested in dominating the market with a new product rollout? On top of it, I do not feel any RIA technology will be the go-to solution until it gets support from a large number of designers/design-technologists - something that Microsoft and traditional Microsoft products notoriously do not get. To me, that signifies a failure.
Then there is the desktop. I honestly feel this is the greenest pasture for these technologies in the coming years. At this point however, I have yet to read anywhere that Microsoft is planning the same level of cross-platform desktop integration as Adobe has with AIR (please correct me if I am wrong). This is one area where Silverlight could swiftly pummel AIR (on the Windows platform). However, I am understandably skeptical of how any new Microsoft product will fair on other platforms. We will see how this plays out, but once again, Adobe has the head start.
Microsoft Domination is So 1999
The idea that immediate adoption for a Microsoft product is inevitable simply is an outdated notion. We are seeing growing adoption for Firefox, no plans for iPhone support of Silverlight (Flash looks to be on the iPhone soon) and mass consumer frustration of Vista. If Microsoft had been able to buy out Yahoo (which uses a tremendous amount of Flash/Flex that could have been moved over the Silverlight), then that would have potentially changed everything, but that did not happen.
With all the criticisms that I have spoke of concerning Silverlight, this does not even take into account the fundamental criticisms/concerns I have RIA technologies in general. All the concerns I have with Flash can be said about Silverlight as well. You take a technology (with Flash) that is increasingly embracing open-source and standards, has been in the market for what seems forever, has a history of solid improvements on the product and pit it against a competitor (Silverlight) which is new and still rough around the edges, notoriously proprietary, and has a history of poor support of internet products. You take all of that and throw in the reality that open-source technologies are eating away at both of their markets along with the reality that Microsoft’s peak of dominance is behind them and it seems clear to me that Silverlight has a huge (if not insurmountable) hill in front of it. In short, if I am skeptical about Flash’s future within the browser, how could I see anything but failure on the horizon for Silverlight?adobe, air, browser plugin, cross browser, cross platform, flash, flex, javascript, microsoft, open source, ria, silverlight standards
May 14th, 2008 at 11:28 am
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“open-source solutions that provide similar solutions take their place”.
You could hardly find anything more proprietary than stuff from Apple including Macs and iPhones, pal. Why are you using them while being so pro open source? How about replace them w/ whatever FOSS folks are offering?
Your opinions are self-contradictory at best. Sooner or later you’d realize like everyone else that there’s no cause & effect between open source and quality. Just my 2cs.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Parley, I couldn’t agree more about the iPhone - which is why I don’t own one and why I’m holding off for Android. I am a little iffy with your opinion on Apple products in general - OS X is built on an open source foundation and Safari runs on WebKit, but I see what you’re saying. That said, if I could run Linux and get all my needs, I would be there in a heartbeat. Frankly, I think that time is coming soon. Still, I’m not sure if this has much to do with Flash, Silverlight and advances in AJAX/DHTML.
I am not saying there is no room for non open-source technologies, I am merely stating that there are some open source projects that are squeezing out areas that normally were dominated by technologies such a Flash and Silverlight. I honestly do not feel that is disputable.
I sincerely do not see how my opinions are self-contradictory. I do think the overall quality of the online experience has been impacted dramatically from open source technologies. Firefox lit a fire under Microsoft to improve its browser. Advancements in Javascript practices have allowed many user-experiences to be pulled out from proprietary plugins. The majority of the internet runs on an open source foundation (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP), how has that not impacted quality?
May 14th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
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“I am a little iffy with your opinion on Apple products in general - OS X is built on an open source foundation”
I wouldn’t call it to be pro open source to use open source code in a commercial product unless you contribute back to the community.
In what way does apple do that?
If they don’t I would say that the fact that OSX is based on open source code instead makes them anti open source.
Leo’s last blog post..SVN version control in Flashdevelop projects
May 14th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
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[…] update the content without reloading the page. Does this mean that the future of Flash looks bleak? Somerandomdude seems to think so, and points to some of examples if the impeding demise of Flash. John Resig’s […]
May 14th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Darwin is open source. That seems pretty open to me.
Still, I hope this doesn’t turn out to be an Apple vs. Microsoft conversation. It was merely a point in an otherwise different conversation. I have no problem with people using Windows - I am concentrating my discussion on Silverlight. Secondly, I am not suggesting that Silverlight is a fundamentally bad technology - what I am saying is that it is still a technology that seems to be rough around the edges in a market that is controlled by a pretty solid alternative that is slowly shrinking - making it harder for competitors to squeeze in.
Also, I am not saying AJAX/DHTML is going to kill technologies such as Flash. Let me be very clear. But I do think the need for Flash/Silverlight will continue to lower. A perfect example of this in my opinion is the Method.com redesign. The site is almost 100% DHTML and it looks amazing. This is something that traditionally would have had to be done in Flash, but no more. The site looks and feels absolutely amazing yet still maintains all the benefits of being in HTML markup.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
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Ok…I stand corrected then even if my general impression of Apple is pretty much the “companification” of proprietary.
But back to the subject, as you can see above I posted a long rant as a reaction to some of the points in your post.
I don’t really agree with the assertion that there is no room for Silverlight, Flash and DHTML.
I think Silverlight will find it’s niche eventually with developers already using a lot of MS technologies when they get the plug to spread enough.
The market is big enough, and it’s constantly growing.
And obviously it will not be a problem for users to have a few plug-ins installed.
It’s IMO rather amazing how locked in both the server and client side have been to extremely few technologies and a few more will not hurt.
Anyways…thanks for a nice blog. Even if I so far mostly have been responding with disagreements I do find your posts engaging.
Leo’s last blog post..Rumours of the death of Flash have been greatly exaggerated
May 14th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Leo - I definitely see where you’re coming, I just know there is a lot of frustration when it comes to Flash from the many users on the web. I see that, a growing open source alternative and to me that adds up to Flash becoming increasingly niche. Not dead, but niche. Additionally, you take a technology like Silverlight, which presents the same problems to the user as Flash, tack on a Microsoft logo, and you have an extremely large segement of the web with will be very hesitant to installing. I guess, in the end, we’ll see.
I’m glad the article has engaged discussion and thank you so much for the participation. I by no means am offended if people disagree with me - they are merely my opinions.
Thanks for all the intelligent discourse.
May 14th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
$0.00 in Comment Love for August
MS’s biggest advantage here is its market share. In the short term they can make their platform somewhat ubiquitous by weaving it into the fabric of their various OS implementations and even onto their specific hardware (XBOX360, Zune, etc.). Although MS is slowly losing market share all around - in browsers and in the OS market to some degree, they still account for the biggest slice of the pie.
Silverlight looks like it can do a lot of what Flash does, with some advantages (faster, appears to support more hardware acceleration, etc.) much as Apple’s Quicktime can handle HD video much better than Flash. At this point it isn’t even so much a technology issue as a killer app issue - MS needs killer apps and needs to win the hearts of developers to get them to make them. Unfortunately most of their demo apps are very bad, and to the subtext of this article a lot of developers who are of the leading-edge variety seem to be leaning on pushing JavaScript and other technologies over exploring a whole new plugin architecture and code framework.
Whether we *need* another Flash is the big question. I personally would rather have seen the R+D dollars go into making IE standards compliant and driving initiatives in HTML5 and CSS3. At the same time the design-by-committee nature of the W3C has made browser technology evolve at a snail’s pace. I recall doing ‘DHTML’ and things similar to the aforementioned method site in 1998. They just happened to only work in a very particular way, in one browser or another…but the guts of what we are able to somewhat safely employ now have been in the works for over 10 years with barely any consensus on standardization.
Not to toot MS’s horn but they’ve had a type of ‘web fonts’ support (a big reason those in the typographical know have leveraged Flash so much) since over 10 years ago, which is just now being pushed into CSS3 (see Safari 3+). They have had CSS ‘behaviors’ (HTC) now finally showing up as CSS3 ‘transitions’ since about then as well. They had VML for a long time, and bitmap filters for a long time (the capabilities of which are now finally showing up as ‘canvas’)… and so on. As much as I don’t appreciate their failure to support standards, I have to give them that they were trying to push browser capabilities towards very desirable functional goals while W3C sorts carried out circular debates over what to ratify. The whole thing feels like it could be a metaphor for Capitalism vs. Socialism, not that I’d want to open that can of worms.
As much as Flash and Silverlight are competing for an evolving space, I am left to wonder how long people will really experience all things web via a web browser. A few twists one way or another and the whole landscape will change quite dramatically. Remember when people used to use a MOUSE?
May 14th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
$0.00 in Comment Love for August
Good post, but I think you are off the mark on a few points:
“The need for RIA apps on the web will always be there, but the demand is going to shrink considerably”
AJAX/HTML 5/etc can be used to build RIAs, Flash and Silverlight are simply alternative tools for RIA development. While we may be seeing the demand for plugins to deliver RIAs decline, I think it’s pretty inaccurate to claim that the demand for RIAs themselves is on the decline.
“When you see John Resig’s Processing.js and current experiments with HTML 5’s video element, the writing on the wall should be evident.”
Considering that the canvas tag has been available in Firefox and Safari for about 3 years and has gone unused, I’d draw a different conclusion. By controlling the browser market share, Microsoft still controls what features are and are not actually available for wide deployment by HTML developers. Considering that Microsoft is in the business of selling desktop software, their incentive to speed along the advancement of web based software should be in question.
I think Flickr serves as a very good example of where the web was, has come to, and is going. Not that long ago Flickr used a lot of Flash on their site to manage collections of images and put notes on photos. As AJAX advanced, Flickr replaced many of the small Flash utilities on their site with AJAX solutions. However, as Flash advanced, tools like Picnik’s photo editor became viable. Picnik is now used within Flickr to do basic photo retouching. I think we’re seeing a trend of Flash being replaced with AJAX for small utilities on basic web pages, but advanced site tools such as the image editors are implemented in Flash.
I’d agree that Flash is receding from use as a website development tool (for good reason). Where I strongly disagree is that the niche into which it is being pushed is a shrinking one.
May 14th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
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@somerandomdude
I see what you mean about Flash becoming more niche, but has it ever been meant to be anything else?
Just before the arrival of AJAX and the revival of DHTML at least I was guilty of thinking Flash was the salvation that would enable us to break of of the very constrictive mould that the browsers and W3C was imposing on us.
But even if I dislike working with HTML and CSS it’s a step in the right direction that Flash will not be used to create content that is supposed to be possible to handle without a plug-in.
I can see that it can be a scary thought to have Adobe owning the presentation layer of the web, so in some way I hope that the open standards technologies will remain the foundation of the web and plug-ins remain in use only for specific tasks.
Things are certainly improving when it comes to standard compliance as well as the capabilities of the standards, but it still seems like Flash will be able to remain one step ahead of their very slow evolution.
Silverlight will probably not add much in the end but I don’t think it’s future is depending on if it can offer anything new of fill a niche that other technologies are neglecting.
The success will depend on if developers like to work with it or not, and I think the scenario will be similar to what we have on the server side with various languages and databases. They all do pretty much the same thing and could replace each other easily, but some developers prefer one and some the other based on all sorts of different criteria other than actual features.
Leo’s last blog post..Rumours of the death of Flash have been greatly exaggerated
May 16th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
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I think flash is just one of those things that is a niche like a lot of people are saying. if I were to make a flash site it would be built for someone that is more concerned with the fun of a site and the image rather than the usability for anyone accessing the site. These things will get better once faster internet and functionality of sorts becomes more popular.
Jason K’s last blog post..Las Vegas Outdoor Wedding
May 30th, 2008 at 10:49 am
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I think we may be missing a point by talking about Flash Vs Silverlight. I believe that Microsoft wants to ensure that Windows is still THE platform for rich client applications. Given today’s technology and dominance of Windows, from Microsoft’s point of view the concept of browser can just go away in a few years. All you need is the richest possible UI experience when surfing the web. Why be limited by the browser ? Guys at Google - would love to hear your thoughts on this:)