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But even if I dislike working with HTML and CSS it’s a step in the right direction that Flash will not be used to create content that is supposed to be possible to handle without a plug-in.
I can see that it can be a scary thought to have Adobe owning the presentation layer of the web, so in some way I hope that the open standards technologies will remain the foundation of the web and plug-ins remain in use only for specific tasks.
Things are certainly improving when it comes to standard compliance as well as the capabilities of the standards, but it still seems like Flash will be able to remain one step ahead of their very slow evolution.

Silverlight will probably not add much in the end but I don’t think it’s future is depending on if it can offer anything new of fill a niche that other technologies are neglecting.
The success will depend on if developers like to work with it or not, and I think the scenario will be similar to what we have on the server side with various languages and databases. They all do pretty much the same thing and could replace each other easily, but some developers prefer one and some the other based on all sorts of different criteria other than actual features.

Leo’s last blog post..Rumours of the death of Flash have been greatly exaggerated

“The need for RIA apps on the web will always be there, but the demand is going to shrink considerably”
AJAX/HTML 5/etc can be used to build RIAs, Flash and Silverlight are simply alternative tools for RIA development. While we may be seeing the demand for plugins to deliver RIAs decline, I think it’s pretty inaccurate to claim that the demand for RIAs themselves is on the decline.

“When you see John Resig’s Processing.js and current experiments with HTML 5’s video element, the writing on the wall should be evident.”
Considering that the canvas tag has been available in Firefox and Safari for about 3 years and has gone unused, I’d draw a different conclusion. By controlling the browser market share, Microsoft still controls what features are and are not actually available for wide deployment by HTML developers. Considering that Microsoft is in the business of selling desktop software, their incentive to speed along the advancement of web based software should be in question.

I think Flickr serves as a very good example of where the web was, has come to, and is going. Not that long ago Flickr used a lot of Flash on their site to manage collections of images and put notes on photos. As AJAX advanced, Flickr replaced many of the small Flash utilities on their site with AJAX solutions. However, as Flash advanced, tools like Picnik’s photo editor became viable. Picnik is now used within Flickr to do basic photo retouching. I think we’re seeing a trend of Flash being replaced with AJAX for small utilities on basic web pages, but advanced site tools such as the image editors are implemented in Flash.

I’d agree that Flash is receding from use as a website development tool (for good reason). Where I strongly disagree is that the niche into which it is being pushed is a shrinking one.

Silverlight looks like it can do a lot of what Flash does, with some advantages (faster, appears to support more hardware acceleration, etc.) much as Apple’s Quicktime can handle HD video much better than Flash. At this point it isn’t even so much a technology issue as a killer app issue - MS needs killer apps and needs to win the hearts of developers to get them to make them. Unfortunately most of their demo apps are very bad, and to the subtext of this article a lot of developers who are of the leading-edge variety seem to be leaning on pushing JavaScript and other technologies over exploring a whole new plugin architecture and code framework.

Whether we *need* another Flash is the big question. I personally would rather have seen the R+D dollars go into making IE standards compliant and driving initiatives in HTML5 and CSS3. At the same time the design-by-committee nature of the W3C has made browser technology evolve at a snail’s pace. I recall doing ‘DHTML’ and things similar to the aforementioned method site in 1998. They just happened to only work in a very particular way, in one browser or another…but the guts of what we are able to somewhat safely employ now have been in the works for over 10 years with barely any consensus on standardization.

Not to toot MS’s horn but they’ve had a type of ‘web fonts’ support (a big reason those in the typographical know have leveraged Flash so much) since over 10 years ago, which is just now being pushed into CSS3 (see Safari 3+). They have had CSS ‘behaviors’ (HTC) now finally showing up as CSS3 ‘transitions’ since about then as well. They had VML for a long time, and bitmap filters for a long time (the capabilities of which are now finally showing up as ‘canvas’)… and so on. As much as I don’t appreciate their failure to support standards, I have to give them that they were trying to push browser capabilities towards very desirable functional goals while W3C sorts carried out circular debates over what to ratify. The whole thing feels like it could be a metaphor for Capitalism vs. Socialism, not that I’d want to open that can of worms.

As much as Flash and Silverlight are competing for an evolving space, I am left to wonder how long people will really experience all things web via a web browser. A few twists one way or another and the whole landscape will change quite dramatically. Remember when people used to use a MOUSE?

I’m glad the article has engaged discussion and thank you so much for the participation. I by no means am offended if people disagree with me - they are merely my opinions. Thanks for all the intelligent discourse.

But back to the subject, as you can see above I posted a long rant as a reaction to some of the points in your post.
I don’t really agree with the assertion that there is no room for Silverlight, Flash and DHTML.
I think Silverlight will find it’s niche eventually with developers already using a lot of MS technologies when they get the plug to spread enough.
The market is big enough, and it’s constantly growing.
And obviously it will not be a problem for users to have a few plug-ins installed.
It’s IMO rather amazing how locked in both the server and client side have been to extremely few technologies and a few more will not hurt.

Anyways…thanks for a nice blog. Even if I so far mostly have been responding with disagreements I do find your posts engaging.

Leo’s last blog post..Rumours of the death of Flash have been greatly exaggerated

Still, I hope this doesn’t turn out to be an Apple vs. Microsoft conversation. It was merely a point in an otherwise different conversation. I have no problem with people using Windows - I am concentrating my discussion on Silverlight. Secondly, I am not suggesting that Silverlight is a fundamentally bad technology - what I am saying is that it is still a technology that seems to be rough around the edges in a market that is controlled by a pretty solid alternative that is slowly shrinking - making it harder for competitors to squeeze in.

Also, I am not saying AJAX/DHTML is going to kill technologies such as Flash. Let me be very clear. But I do think the need for Flash/Silverlight will continue to lower. A perfect example of this in my opinion is the Method.com redesign. The site is almost 100% DHTML and it looks amazing. This is something that traditionally would have had to be done in Flash, but no more. The site looks and feels absolutely amazing yet still maintains all the benefits of being in HTML markup.